Democratic candidate for the United States Senate from Pennsylvania, Chuck Pennacchio, wrote some interesting comments about the 2006 race in a diary on MyDD. While I have to admit that I’m not so certain about the pro-choice Republcian ticket jumpers Pennacchio describes, I think many of his points are on target. Here’s a little, but it’s well worth reading the whole thing.
In 2000, the Democrats settled on moderate, anti-choice Ron Klink as their candidate to take on Santorum. This aligned very well with the (still-prevailing) conventional wisdom that the Democrats had to move to the center to win a statewide race in Pennsylvania. Ron Klink had slight success at gaining moderate voters in Central PA; however, this was more than offset by the large number of pro-choice voters who did not cast a vote (over half a million more votes were cast in the presidential election than in the Senatorial election), and just as importantly, did not involve themselves in the Klink campaign. Pro-choice women, a major organizational and financial cog of the Democratic party, sat out the race, and the Democrats allowed a radical right-winger to represent them in Washington.
In 2000, a progressive, populist, pro-choice campaign would likely have defeated Rick Santorum. In 2006, it is the only option to defeat Rick Santorum. Unlike 2000, when the presidential election brought voters to the polls (and some pro-choice Democratic voters “held their noses” and voted for Klink), the 2006 Senate race will be the center of attention. Governor Rendell appears ready to coast to victory, and a sizable bloc of Rendell’s support comes from pro-choice Republicans. These are voters who, if given a pro-choice option, would vote against Rick Santorum. They will not jump party lines to support an anti-choice Democrat.
The thing that strikes me most Pennacchio’s post, is his observation that the conventional wisdom within Pennsylvania’s Democratic establishment, is that it needs to run a moderate or conservative Democrat (I’d probably add non-Philadelphian as well), in order pick up Rick Santorum’s seat. What many liberal voters are left with, under those circumstances, is the old, unfortunate choice between the lesser of two evils. I think that, unfortunately, Pennacchio is correct in his supposition that a healthy number of liberal Democrats, particularly from the Philadelphia area, will turn out to pull the lever for Rendell, and then not bother with the rest of the ballot, if a social conservative is the Democratic nominee for Senate. If Rendell is far enough ahead in the polls come election day, they probably won’t turn out at all.
I’m not, however, ready to say that I’m unwilling to support or vote for Casey, as he isn’t the nominee and, to my knowledge, hasn’t produced a single policy paper or stated a single position with regards to the upcoming race. I’ll wait until he has, and then make my judgments based those positions. I’m not altogether hopeful.
To his credit, Casey was remarkably successful in his run for the office of Pennsylvania Auditor General, collecting more votes than any other Democratic, statewide candidate in the history of the Commonwealth. No wonder the Pennsylvania Democratic leadership is salivating over the guy. Combine that with the Casey family name, which still resonates with many Pennsylvania voters, particularly in the Scranton area, and he looks like a shoe in.
Unfortunately for Casey, voters do tend to evaluate candidates and issues differently in local and state elections than they do in federal elections. A candidate’s stance on abortion rights, for instance, has very little bearing on the way a person chooses their commonwealth’s Auditor General. That very same issue often does have a great deal of influence on the way that very same person chooses the candidate they want as their U.S. Senator.
Klink’s run against Santorum in 2000 really ought to have been a lesson to Pennsylvania Democrats. A Democratic candidate for Senate is not going to win anything without enthusiastic turnout in Philadelphia and it’s Pennsylvania suburbs. The numbers simply don’t add up otherwise. Needless to say, Klink’s peculiar choice not to run any sort of campaign in Philadelphia probably wasn’t the best choice he ever made. Live and learn. If I recall correctly, I believe I actually did see him once, at a rally for Al Gore at Memorial Hall in Fairmount Park, standing somewhere behind John Street and any number of other local politicians, on the Sunday before the election. Gore was even nice enough to introduce him, and some people may have even applauded, as it probably seemed like the polite thing to do.
What a disaster. Really, what an awful disaster. Santorum is so far outside of even the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s mainstream, that he should have been toast five years ago. He should be working for some right-wing think tank in his native Virginia, spouting off his special brand of insanity on cable chat shows, and scaring the general public, but as a private citizen right now. The Democratic party, and it’s nominee, had to do everything wrong, and then some, in order to lose that race, and somehow they managed to do it. They did it and they did it with gusto. He should be toast next year as well, but judging from the Democratic Party’s enthusiasm for an uncontested primary, I’m afraid the die has been cast.
Since he’s only been dead for a litte while, I’ll end this mess with a Hunter S. Thompson quote that seems quite appropriate to me right now.
How many more of these goddam elections are we going to have to write off as lame but ‘regrettably necessary’ holding actions? And how many more of these stinking double-downer sideshows will we have to go through before we can get ourselves straight enough to put together some kind of national election that will give me and the at least 20 million people I tend to agree with a chance to vote for something, instead of always being faced with that old familiar choice between the lesser of two evils? I understand, along with a lot of other people, that the big thing, this year, is Beating Nixon. But that was also the big thing, as I recall, twelve years ago in 1960 - and as far as I can tell, we’ve gone from bad to worse to rotten since then, and the outlook is for more of the same.