Scoles
by ChrisAugust 17th, 2005 9:20 pm
I just got off of fairly interesting conference call with Paul Scoles who will be running against Curt Weldon in Pennsylvania’s 7th district. The 7th district encompasses most of Delaware county along with portions of Chester and Montgomery counties. The district is interesting because it leans Republican even though the views of a great many of its voters may not line up all that well with the views of the national Republican Party. The continued loyality has quite a bit to do with history, family tradition and a pretty potent Republican machine with deep patronage roots. No doubt, this makes for an uphill climb for any Democrat. On the other hand, the district hasn’t gone for a Republican in a presidential race since the 1980’s - the last of the Rockefellers I suppose.
As for the conference call, I was impressed with Paul Scoles. He demonstrated a breadth of understanding on issues both local and national. He was able to navigate topics from the war in Iraq to the Haverford School District (where he lives) with knowledge and ease. I made a few crass comments about the Democratic party’s chances of beating Curt Weldon the other day. Let’s just say that I think a good, knowledgeable candidate like Paul just might make what I suggested unnecessary.
My one concern is that that if I and other Philadelphia bloggers start pumping up the volume for Paul, that we might inadvertently hurt him. Political support for a particular candidate coming from San Francisco would probably be more appealing to a good number of Delaware County voters, than it would coming from Philadelphia. Regional harmony is quite a bit better now then it was when I was a kid, but there is still a good deal of distain in the air, coming from all sides.
Anyway, this is still a while off so there is a lot of time to figure out the political hackery. Considering the candidate I heard tonight and some of the numbers I’ve seen, this looks like a solid chance for a nice pickup for the Democrats.
August 18th, 2005 at 8:12 am
Actually, to get back to something we were talking about a couple weeks ago, if the finace and I move to Delaware County, Weldon will be my congressman.
That little personal tidbit aside, one of the things people need to remember about Weldon’s district is that one of the biggest employers there is the Boeing plant in Ridley (my fiance’s parents live down there and her dad works at Boeing), and Weldon, through his position on the Armed Services committee, is able to secure funding for numerous projects that keep the people there employed.
Now, you can argue the merits of some of those projects since one of them, the Osprey, has this pesky habit of crashing quite a bit, but he’s got a pretty solid base of support across the spectrum based just on people that work there.
August 18th, 2005 at 9:13 am
Good point about Boeing and I’m sure he’ll use that in his every onee of his commercials. Things like that are always going to be an issue when the out party is running in a machine controlled district. Patronage and the like can buy a lot of loyaltiy for an incumbent.
August 18th, 2005 at 10:17 am
Commercials? When’s the last time you saw a Curt Weldon commercial? He certainly didn’t run any during the last campaign nor did he accept any invitations to debate either of his two opponents (Greg Phillips or Paul Scoles). I don’t even think Weldon has mentioned the name of any of his opponents for at least a decade. Why? Because he doesn’t have to. Unless we get a Democratic candidate in that district that can raise over a million dollars and flood the airwaves with his own commercials, Weldon won’t have to lift a finger. If you want Scoles to have any chance at all, it’s going to take a lot more than conference calls and town hall meetings… it’s going to take cash and lots of it. Any D is going to get an automatic 40-42% just by virtue of the registration numbers in the district. Getting that extra 8.1-10.1% will only come with name recognition, a solid message, and an ability to drive up Weldon’s negatives.
August 18th, 2005 at 11:18 am
Dan, I certainly wasn’t suggesting that conference calls with bloggers are the way to win elections so I’m not entirely sure where the hostility is coming from. Clearly some of the idea behind the calls is to introduce him to people who might write something nice about him. It worked. Does his being mentioned here do a thing to help him? Very doubtful, but since I lack the ability to raise $1,000,000 dollars for him I’m doing what little I can. Generally speaking, when I do this sort of thing I’m trying to take advantage of the print media’s unhealthy obsession with blogs and trying to introduce a name to people who really can reach a large audience if they so choose.